What followed these rumors was pure chaos. By the time college football kicked off at the end of August, Colorado and Nebraska had left the Big 12 for the Pac-10 and Big Ten, respectively. The University of Utah tagged along with Colorado, leaving the Mountain West Conference, where it was replaced by Boise State. Utah’s hated in-state rival, BYU, also departed the Mountain West for football independence (leaving its other sports to compete in the West Coast Conference, a collection of private, religious institutions), and was to be replaced, eventually, with Nevada-Reno and Fresno State.

 

While it seemed that realignment had cooled down, this was not to be. The Mountain West invited Hawaii as a football-only member (its other sports would move from the Western Athletic Conference to the Big West Conference, formerly a California-only league) and TCU, a member of the Mountain West located in Fort Worth, Texas, was invited to the Big East in all sports. Less than a year later, Texas A&M, which had previously toyed with the idea of joining the Southeastern Conference instead of the Pac-12 but had ultimately decided to remain in a 10-member Big 12 (more fuzzy math!), announced that it was reversing course again and intended to leave the Big 12. A couple of weeks into the 2011 season, Texas A&M accepted an invitation to join the SEC; before the season’s end, Missouri would come along for the ride, leaving the Big 12 at eight original members. The Big 12 responded by bringing in TCU (which, despite its acceptance of a Big East invitation the year before, would never play a game as a member of that league, as it was still competing in the Mountain West) and West Virginia of the Big East. The Big East, meanwhile, was reeling from another midseason realignment mess, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh announcing that they would join the Atlantic Coast Conference.

 

Dizzy yet? It’s not over. Not even close.

 

In late 2011, the Big East invited Houston, SMU, Central Florida, San Diego State and Boise State (the latter two as football-only members).  In 2012, the conference has also added Temple, Memphis, Tulane, East Carolina and Navy (the latter two, again, as football-only members) and lost Rutgers to the Big Ten and Louisivlle to the ACC, along with football independent Notre Dame, which moved the rest of its sports from the Big East to the ACC, which lost Maryland to the Big Ten.

 

And throughout the year, rumors have constantly surfaced about the Big 12 being interested in schools ranging from Florida State and Clemson to Louisville and BYU. Yet every time those rumors come up, the schools and conference leadership in the Big 12 say they are happy with just 10 members, despite the arms race — and land grab — that has caused three other major conferences to expand to 14 members. This reluctance to expand again, I believe, is shortsighted.

 

As an alumnus of TCU, I am interested in protecting the football future of the Horned Frogs, and I believe that the primary way to ensure that future is to make the Big 12 stronger and less vulnerable to poaching from other leagues. Reducing that vulnerability is, to me, the most important reason to expand the conference. The Pac-12 has twice made a bid to poach Big 12 teams; in addition to the push mentioned above, the conference in 2011 considered adding Oklahoma and Oklahoma State after Texas A&M bolted for the SEC, but ultimately decided to stand pat at 12 schools. It seems likely that if the Pac-12 again gets an itch to expand, it will try to scratch that itch with Big 12 members if the latter conference is vulnerable. Programs like Texas and Oklahoma are big prizes for any league to grab.

 

On the other hand, if the Big 12 schools are more locked down, the Pac-12 has few other palatable options for expansion; its next best candidates are Boise State and BYU, which the league has shown resistance to inviting for reasons ranging from academics to playing on Sundays. So if (perhaps when) the Pac-12 wants to become the Pac-14 or the Pac-16, it seems almost inevitable that it will at least make one more play to bring aboard Texas, Oklahoma, and others in the Big 12. However, bringing more strong, valuable programs into the Big 12 can increase value and extend a media-rights deal that currently serves as a buffer to future poaching.

 

Right now, the only conferences that appear invulnerable to poaching by others are the SEC, the Pac-12 and the Big Ten (with the caveat that Missouri reportedly has always desired Big Ten membership and so might jump to that conference from the SEC if given the chance). Everyone else is potentially open to other offers until the shifting stops. Texas and Oklahoma in football and Kansas in basketball form a very strong backbone for the Big 12, but not quite as strong as the slew of football heavyweights in the SEC or the large number of balanced athletic programs in the Big Ten and Pac-12. But there are other strong programs with national followings out there to be grabbed.

 

Out of the ACC, Florida State is an all-around excellent athletic program, and its football program probably has the best national following in its conference. It’s a no-brainer that the Seminoles would bring value to the Big 12. Other strong candidates from the ACC would include Clemson, Virginia Tech, and, despite a major decline over the past several years, Miami. All of those schools would likely add value in terms of television money — one of the biggest considerations in the conference arms race — and would strengthen the competitive backbone of an already deep league. The stronger the core of the Big 12, the less likely it will be to break apart.

 

The final reason for expanding the Big 12 will be to restore its spotlight conference championship game. Simply put, that game was a moneymaker, especially after Cowboys Stadium opened in Arlington, Texas, with Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones just throwing money at the conference to get league heavyweights to face off there. In addition to making money for the conference and its members, the game ensured that the league would be in the spotlight on the same Saturday that a number of other conferences had similar center-stage title bouts. As it is right now, the Big 12 has three or four games that week, many of which have little importance. In 2012, the league lucked out by having two games on the last week of the regular season, Kansas State-Texas and TCU-Oklahoma, with an impact on the Big 12 title and the BCS bowl bids. But had Baylor not beaten Kansas State, the Wildcats would have already had the title and the bid clinched before the final Saturday, greatly reducing the importance of all games played that day.

 

Despite these facts, the Big 12 has signaled that it is comfortable remaining at 10 members. The biggest reason the schools in the conference are reluctant to expand is that they already make so much money from current media deals and do not want to split the pie any more ways. This, certainly, is understandable. College sports is a big business, and money concerns have driven all of the conference shuffling thus far. However, reluctance to expand on these grounds while ignoring the tectonic shifting happening in the college sports landscape, at best, amounts to a failure to see the forest for the trees. If the Big 12 schools make a little more money over the next five years but end up losing half of the other members of the conference, that shortsightedness will almost certainly cost them in the long run.

 

Another reason the Big 12 has resisted expansion is that many of its members prefer the nine-game conference schedule without a league title game. Admittedly, it is an easier path to a national championship than playing eight or nine regular-season conference games and then a league championship bout. However, with the advent of a seeded four-team playoff in 2014, it’s certainly possible that, if push comes to shove, an easier path could work against conference heavyweights. If the Big 12 champion is up against a more tested candidate from another conference for the last of the four spots, a selection committee could leave the league’s best team out in the cold.

 

In the long run, then, I think that the Big 12 must at least be open to expansion. The current configuration works well for now, but that won’t be the case forever. Personally, I believe that jumping from 10 members to 14 is advisable to best buffer against poaching. That said, we must consider that changing some schools’ minds will take time, and it is unlikely that anyone will be on board with expanding to 14 immediately. With that in mind, the proper compromise might be to send a rhetorical message to other conferences that the Big 12 intends to stay together and continue to become stronger by announcing that it will consider new members to expand to 12, but not make a move just yet. One reason for this move is that the ACC recently approved a $50 million exit fee for its members. Maryland — reportedly one of two members to be against raising the fee, along with Florida State — is currently in the process of fighting with the conference to get the fee lowered. If that sum drops at all, it would signal that other ACC schools may leave for less money as well. That would be the sign that the Big 12 should consider taking in schools such as Florida State and Clemson.

 

The most important thing, though, is for the Big 12 to soften its adamant stance against expansion. The college football world is changing so rapidly, so chaotically, that being unwilling to budge is an extremely risky move. Those who don’t evolve in an evolving world are doomed to extinction. The Big 12 would do well to remember that.